For many years now I've had a healthy addiction to watches. Healthy, because I don't really buy them to support the addiction. I just love watches, though I can't really say why.

Watches are all the rage right now. They're getting bigger and bigger and becoming more of a focal point for personal bling it seems. Just take a walk through the mall and you're sure to see watches with faces so big, they're about the size of a steering wheel in a Mini Cooper.

So Katie and I were in a watch store the other day, and a Burberry watch caught my eye. Nice shiny silver, with all kinds of intricate details, but not too overboard like some ridiculous rap artist or something ("artist" being used lightly there). Come to find out that Burberry watches are made by Fossil but branded for Burberry. Hmmmm.... interesting. You know who else Fossil makes watches for? Just a few brands you might have heard of: Abacus, Diesel, DKNY, Disney, Emporio Armani, Kenneth Cole, Philippe Starck, MW Michelle, Michael Kors, Marc Jacobs, Relic, Wrist PDA, and Zodiac to name a few.

So at this point I'm seeing dollar signs in my eyes thinking about FOSL stock, and their near monopoly here in the middle of my watch revolution. Everything looks good right? Buy Buy Buy, right? Well, not necessarily. It's time for a little homework... say.... a few minutes worth... and that will tell me to buy, or forget about it.

Homework

FOSL has had about a 100% run in the last 12 months. In the last few months (since middle May), institutional money has been pulling out, which explains the May resistance at around $32/share. So the big money is pulling out, but is that all that matters? Not really. Let's look at some numbers (last 4 quarters):
ROIC: 11.50% (return on invested capital)
Book Value / Share Growth rate: 4.5%
EPS growth rate: -12.34%
Sales Growth rate: 8.39%
Free cash flow growth rate: -136.43%

Not so hot any more. Those are last 4 quarters' numbers, but what you don't see there is that most of those numbers have been declining year over year. Those five numbers should all be +10% and not falling. Well that is if you're like me and you like to invest with minimal to little risk.

Final answer? Monopoly or not, it's NO buy time for me. It looks good on the outside... but not so hot on the inside. So I'll push FOSL aside, and perhaps invite Qaulcomm to make a portfolio debut.